Deterministic chaos theory and forecasting in Social Sciences. Contribution to the discussion

Forecasting social phenomena may be hampered in many ways. This is because in nature of these phenomena lies strong and multilateral connection with other social phenomena; but not only – also physical and biological (natural) ones. The content of this publication constitutes presentation of chosen problems of forecasting in social sciences. The attention in the article was focused among others on deterministic chaos theory, on the attempt of its implementation to phenomena from the scope (or from borderline) of social sciences: economy, logistics, science about safety etc. Moreover, one of the threads of ponderation was the attempt to consider whether it’s possible to create so-called final theory. The aim of the publication is to signalize possibilities of taking advantage of seemingly exotic for “political scientists” methodology of modeling and explaining phenomena, having its source in exact sciences (in chaos theory) to study social phenomena and processes

Ukraina po wyborach parlamentarnych 2012 roku – wybrane scenariusze rozwoju sytuacji politycznej

The twenty or so years of Ukrainian sovereignty is definitely too short a period to facilitate fully justified hypotheses concerning the development of both the domestic and international situation of Ukraine, but it does make it possible to make some conjectures. This paper presents a scenario for the development of Ukraine’s political situation which, in the author’s opinion, will take place, or is actually in progress, following the 2012 parliamentary elections. This simplified scenario has been designed employing a forecasting method named the international scenario method. Taking into consideration that forecasting social phenomena tends to be difficult in many respects (which is a consequence of their strong and multifarious relations not only with other social, but also physical and biological, phenomena) the paper refers to selected forecasting issues, in particular those related to the international scenario method, which is then applied to the political situation of Ukraine. In the author’s opinion, in the years to come Ukraine will continue to degenerate towards authoritarian regimes, or will ‘strengthen’ its status as a hybrid regime.Dwadzieścia kilka lat niepodległej Ukrainy to stanowczo za mało, by móc w pełni idarzetelnie stawić hipotezy odnośnie rozwoju sytuacji wewnętrznej i zewnętrznej tego państwa, niemniej jednak, już to pozwala nam snuć pewne przypuszczenia.W artykule przedstawiona jest wizja rozwoju sytuacji politycznej na Ukrainie, jaka zdaniem autora nastąpi – a raczej już następuje – po wyborach parlamentarnych z 2012. Owa – uproszczona – wizja skonstruowana jest w oparciu o jedną z metod prognozowania, zwaną metodą scenariusza międzynarodowego. Biorąc pod uwagę fakt, że prognozowanie zjawisk społecznych bywa pod wieloma względami utrudnione (co wynika m.in. z tego, że w naturze tych zjawisk tkwi silne i wielostronne powiązanie z innymi zjawiskami społecznymi; ale nie tylko – także fizycznymi czy biologicznymi) w artykule przywołano wybrane problemy prognozowania, zwłaszcza te związane z metodą scenariusza międzynarodowego, następnie odniesiono ową metodę do sytuacji politycznej na Ukrainie. Zdaniem Autora Ukraina w kolejnych latach znajdzie się – a raczej już się znajduje – na równi pochyłej, staczając się w stronę reżimów autorytarnych, lub przynajmniej “umacniając się” wśród reżimów hybrydowych

Futurology and Heuristics (with Posthumanities in the Background). Selected Aspects

Prognozowanie zjawisk społecznych bywa pod wieloma względami utrudnione. Wynika to stąd, że w naturze tych zjawisk tkwi silne i wielostronne powiązanie z innymi zjawiskami społecznymi; ale nie tylko - także fizycznymi czy biologicznymi. Treścią publikacji jest przedstawienie wybranych problemów, z jakimi borykają się aktualnie - zwłaszcza w naukach społecznych (w tym także w naukach politycznych) - futurolodzy. Choć artykuł przedstawia różne metody badawcze, ich klasyfikacje itd.. to skoncentrowano się przede wszystkim na metodach heurystycznych: ich genezie, zasadach, sposobie wykorzystania.Forecasting social phenomena can, in many ways, be difficult. The reason is that it is the nature of these phenomena to be closely and multilaterally linked with physical, biological, and other social phenomena. The main aim of this article is to present selected problems related to futurology. Although various research methods are presented in this text, the main focus was put to heuristic methods (their development, rules, ways of application ect.)

Contemporary Chechnya conflict – nation-liberation fight or terrorism

The events of 11 September 2001, bloody terrorist attacks in Middle East, Bali Island, Dubrovka, Madrid or London, like thousands of other terror acts, depict how difficult, complicated and, at the same time, dangerous and unexpected phenomenon we deal with. Terrorism can undoubtedly be labeled on of the most important global problem of the present world. In this article the author tries to bring the problem of the Chechnya conflict, which is – in the eyes of international public opinion – today regarded as Russia’s internal affair. NewYork terrorist attacks of 11 September helped the West to perceive this war as an element of international fight with Islamic fundamentalism

Energy Security – in a Clinch Between Politics and Business. Chosen Alternative Energy Solutions

Energy security is one of the targets of the energy policies adopted by modern states and more and more by supranational structures. At the same time, it is a precondition for a country’s economic growth and the society’s well-being. In the 21 century, we depend on both primary (like electricity) and secondary energy carriers. Among the latter, oil and natural gas played and play an important role in the foreign policies of a number of states. But for resistance from political elites and business a substantial part of energy sources, whose depletion and disastrous effects on climate are touched upon by the same people, could already be successfully replaced. The article represents a contribution to the discussion on the future of world energy production. The concepts referred to might seem pointless, unreal, or trivial, but let us hope that thanks to the discoveries and ideas of both individuals and research teams, the energy problems of the world will be overcome

Spór rosyjsko-białoruski z czerwca 2010 roku a solidarność Unii Europejskiej wobec kryzysów gazowych

The Dispute between Russia and Belarus from June 2010 versus the Solidarity of the European Union in the Face of Gas CrisesSpór rosyjsko-białoruski z czerwca 2010 roku a solidarność Unii Europejskiej wobec kryzysów gazowyc

“Non-campaign of a non-candidate” – Alexei Navalny in the 2018 presidential election in Russia

In March 2018, another presidential election took place in the Russian Federation. For the fourth time Vladimir Putin won the election by a large majority of votes. Alexei Navalny – an oppositioncandidate who had been preparing his election campaign since the end of 2016 – was not allowed to stand in the election. Regardless of his elimination from the election, Navalny remained an active member of Russian political life before and after the election; he carried out a boycott of the election, and organized post-election protests. Without a doubt, despite the ban on running in the election, Navalny was one of the main figures in the electoral process. Thus, the aim of this article is a detailed analysis of Navalny’s preparations for the campaign – the authors focused not only on the candidate’s opposition activity, but also on his unique measures and methods of running a campaign (Internet, social media, crowdfunding). The article examines the campaign preparations, as well as the reasons for the rejection of Navalny’s registration as an election candidate, social support index, relationships with other candidates and the change of strategy after the Central Election Commission’s decision. The analysis is based on Russian law, Central Election Commission’s decisions, opinion poll results and information from the Russian and international media

Spór rosyjsko-białoruski z czerwca 2010 r. jako przykład „geopolityki rurociągów”

Udostępnienie publikacji Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego finansowane w ramach projektu „Doskonałość naukowa kluczem do doskonałości kształcenia”. Projekt realizowany jest ze środków Europejskiego Funduszu Społecznego w ramach Programu Operacyjnego Wiedza Edukacja Rozwój; nr umowy: POWER.03.05.00-00-Z092/17-00

Pomarańczowa Rewolucja na Ukrainie z trockizmem w tle

The recent years of the Trotskyite movement have seen the intensification of two tendencies. The first one involves a new perception of the radical social demands made by the Trotskyite candidates in local, parliamentary and presidential elections. The other one involves the functional incorporation of a broad range of youth and alternative issues into the Trotskyite movement. Similar elements are also present in the program of the Ukrainian Union ‘Struggle’, established in 1999. The ‘Struggle’ shares the opinions on the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the reasons for its failure with all other Trotskyite organizations. It has also developed quite a detailed approach to the issue of Ukrainian independence and the Orange Revolution. In the opinion of Ukrainian Trotskyists V. Yushchenko and V. Yanukovych represented the clans of oligarchs, who had the single aim of destroying the Ukrainian economy by privatizing national property and stealing what the former government did not manage to take away from the nation. The choice was not between Europe and Russia but between American capital waving a European flag and American capital waving a Russian flag. The ‘Struggle’ assumes though that the Orange Revolution has brought advantages as well: the judiciary is trusted, the nation no longer dreads corrupted bureaucracy and political processes raise social interest. It is doubtful that the nearest future will bring any significant changes in the influence of the Trotskyite movement. It is possible, however, that it will manage to contribute new elements to the growing anti-globalist movement. In terms of the Ukrainian future it may be justifiably assumed that society will become ‘disappointed’ with the new government. Then, radical groups with clear views, such as Trotskyists, are likely to participate in the government.The recent years of the Trotskyite movement have seen the intensification of two tendencies. The first one involves a new perception of the radical social demands made by the Trotskyite candidates in local, parliamentary and presidential elections. The other one involves the functional incorporation of a broad range of youth and alternative issues into the Trotskyite movement. Similar elements are also present in the program of the Ukrainian Union ‘Struggle’, established in 1999. The ‘Struggle’ shares the opinions on the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the reasons for its failure with all other Trotskyite organizations. It has also developed quite a detailed approach to the issue of Ukrainian independence and the Orange Revolution. In the opinion of Ukrainian Trotskyists V. Yushchenko and V. Yanukovych represented the clans of oligarchs, who had the single aim of destroying the Ukrainian economy by privatizing national property and stealing what the former government did not manage to take away from the nation. The choice was not between Europe and Russia but between American capital waving a European flag and American capital waving a Russian flag. The ‘Struggle’ assumes though that the Orange Revolution has brought advantages as well: the judiciary is trusted, the nation no longer dreads corrupted bureaucracy and political processes raise social interest. It is doubtful that the nearest future will bring any significant changes in the influence of the Trotskyite movement. It is possible, however, that it will manage to contribute new elements to the growing anti-globalist movement. In terms of the Ukrainian future it may be justifiably assumed that society will become ‘disappointed’ with the new government. Then, radical groups with clear views, such as Trotskyists, are likely to participate in the government